March Madness: A Strategy Guide

Admittedly, I should have written this blog last week before you all frantically printed off your brackets last night and scribbled in answers while the ESPN Films Fab 5 documentary played in the background.

Oh...that was just me? Never mind.

In case you haven't finished your bracket, or you have and realized you put Wofford in your Final Four and would like a second chance at filling it out, I'll offer you a few strategies to a successful (or at least less gut-wrenching) March Madness experience.

Until about two years ago, I, like many of you, had sworn off completing a March Madness bracket every April for the last 10-15 years. Put myself through the agony of picking the three 5 v. 12 upsets that didn't happen? No more! Fill out four brackets in pencil, ensuring every pick is right, before finally inking the official bracket only to regret it moments later? No way! Slam my head against the wall after losing to my wife for the third year in a row? Not me!

Then March comes and I'm scurrying around frantically trying to figure out who UAB played this year, how many points per game they average and if they have a clutch shooter on the team.

So I developed my March Madness Theories. Not all of them are creations from my mind, but the ones that are will be marked in bold...and some that probably aren't will to. I can't regulate this stuff, I have real work to do today.

Without further Freddy Adu, I present the "Five Strategies to Filling out your March Madness Bracket for a Less Gut-Wrenching NCAA Tournament Experience".

1. Pick the teams you hate to win
I perfected (and created) this technique in 2009. Being a Duke fan, (Yeah yeah, I'm an tool for liking a team that plays smart basketball, better defense and features more great white guards than most programs in college basketball history. You're right, I bandwagon the team that turns out long-term skill and position players for the NBA instead of ego-maniac All-Stars that flame out after a few years [with many exceptions]. Who would you rather have on your team right now, a 37 year-old Grant Hill or a 34 year-old Vince Carter? Shane Battier or (from same draft class) Brendan Haywood? Michael Jordan or Christian Laettner?)

Ok, you can't win them all. Where was I? Oh yes. Being a Duke fan, I did not like seeing the Tyler "Most Awkward White Athlete Since Bill Walton" Hansbrough led North Carolina Tarheels get the #1 seed in their division. However, knowing they were a good team and knowing my picks never pan out, I took them to win the title.

I knew one of two things would happen, my picks would not pan out (as usual) and UNC would lose bringing me great joy. Or, my picks WOULD pan out and UNC would win the whole thing and I'd win my brackets...also bringing me great joy.

Obviously the latter happened and I won my first Tournament Pool in ages. Great joy was shared throughout.

2. Pick Higher Seeds

Not an original idea, but still a useful one. Don't get caught up in the upset potential of the NCAA tourney. Yes, a 12-seed almost always upsets a 5-seed. Yes, an unsuspecting team usually makes a run to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight. No, you will not pick them this year. If you don't have a good strategy just take the high seed, make a mojito and laugh at the presumptuous know-it-all who took Belmont to the Elite Eight. Sure, George Mason stunned the world in 2006, but 86.5% of Final Four teams are ranked 4th or higher. Hang on, I need to re-tape my glasses and wipe off the screen to my TI-83.

Look, a guy who works at the local sports radio station in town posted some of his picks for the Southeast Division. He's taking 11-seed Gonzaga to the Elite Eight, 14-seed Wofford to upset 3-seed BYU in Round 1, 12-seed Utah State beating 13-seed Belmont in Round 2 (Utah State needing to upset 5-seed Kansas State and Belmont needing to upset 4-seed Wisconsin both in Round 1) and finally 9-seed ODU is his Final Four pick from that division. That's a 9, 11, 12, 13,14 seed all advancing in the same division. You like upsets? Copy that bracket and laugh your way to last place in your pool.

And you're telling me I can't find a job in sports? Maybe I should start actively looking...

3. Pick the Best Player
Another method I use, is siding with the dominate player in close match-ups. I used this method last year and took the John Wall/Demarcus Cousin led Kentucky Wildcats and the Evan Turner led Ohio State Buckeye's to the Final Four. It didn't exactly work out (Kentucky made it to the Elite Eight and Ohio State to the Sweet Sixteen), but if I had realized that the best player in the tournament was going to be Gordon Haywood, maybe I would have taken Butler to the Finals.

Point being, if you can't decide if Connecticut is going to beat San Diego State in Round Three ask yourself, "Is Kemba Walker going to let the Huskies lose?". Or, "Is Jacob Pullen really going to let Utah State upset Kansas State in the first round?" And there's your answer.

4. Look at Wins vs. Ranked Teams
This is probably something people who spend way too much time on their brackets already do, but its the new technique I'm trying out this year. In tourney time, you gotta know who is a legit threat and who is a good team in a bad conference. For instance, San Diego State (a team a lot of people like to go deep in the tourney) has a 32-2 record on the year. Its the same impressive record that number 1 seeds Ohio State and Kansas have for the season.

However, San Diego State has played 2 ranked teams all year (Gonzaga and BYU). They lost to BYU twice in the regular season and finally beat them the third time in the conference championship (after BYU lost 2nd best player Brandon Davies for engaging in some, um, extracurricular activities). So, does SD State scare me in the tourney? Yes. But I think when they play UConn in the Sweet Sixteen their inexperience against ranked teams will be the deciding factor.

5. Take the Hot Team
I'm taking credit for this one. I may not be the first person to say it, but I haven't taken the idea knowingly from someone else.

Playoffs in any sport come down to who is hot, or who has the deepest roster. In the NHL last year the Montreal Canadieens were a 6 seed yet made the Conference Finals because they were hot at the right time and had the hottest goal keeper in the league. The Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl by having a deep roster and winning the final two games of the season to enter the playoffs streaking.

That said, who do you think I' m taking in the Temple vs. Penn State game? The team from the Atlantic 10 Conference who lost to Richmond? Or the team who burned through the Big Ten tournament to reach the finals for the first time upsetting Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan State along the way? Give me Penn State.

Bonus Strategy: Pick (or Don't Pick) Teams from your State-
I usually don't subscribe to this theory like some of my other Virginia natives although I am tempted to every year. This year I've fallen victim. I'm taking GMU over Villanova, Georgetown to beat VCU (who will beat USC in the play-in), Richmond to upset Vanderbilt and ODU to sneak past reigning runner-up Butler.

First of all, great representation from the state of VA. Second of all, I expect more than half of those picks to be wrong but how can you root against a team from your state?

Unless its Virginia Tech...who I expect will also win their first round game.

In the NIT. Suckers.

Didn't say you had to like every team from your state.

So there you go- six strategies to help you complete your bracket. My final suggestion would be to do what my wife does every year:

1. Read this blog
2. Do the opposite of what it says
3. Rub it in my face that you beat me

Its the most foolproof method here.

Duke v. Butler

As my good friend Tommy put it, "To quote the wise sage Eric Creasman, 'Sometimes Goliath beats the [expletive] out of David.'"

I LOVE college basketball. I grew up in a basketball family, playing basketball, watching my brothers play basketball, it was great. There is no better time of year than March when the madness begins. It's like my Christmas.

I suppose I should get it out there now...I'm a Duke fan. Wait!! Let me explain. I'm not a bandwagon, evil empire loving, self-righteous Duke fan or anything, I just have an affinity for Duke basketball. It all started with a little white point guard named Steve Wojciechowski, or Wojo for the sake of spell check. He played for Duke from '94 to '98 and I loved this guy. I was about 8 years old when I began following the college game religiously. Wojo made an impression on me. Here was a short, nonathletic white guy who could command the team and distribute the ball with the best of them. (This was before I realized white guys can play in college, just not the pros). Naturally, he became an instant role model for me, up there with Steve Kerr, Pistol Pete and Inspector Gadget. I figured, "Hey, I can go on a basketball court and slap the floor chanting DEE-FENSE! Why can't I play for Duke?"

The combination of Wojo and the Duke Head Coach, Mike Krzyzewski (Coach K) encompassed everything I loved about basketball. Coach K is not only a basketball guru but a stand up individual. He's a role model, father, philanthropist and teacher. Not to mention he knows a thing or two about winning basketball games, over 800 of them. Not to mention his 11 Final Four appearances, 12 ACC Tournament Championships, 12 ACC Regular Season Championships, and 4 NCAA Tournament Championships. Naturally, I admire him greatly. Naturally, most of the college basketball world despises him and his team.

It's what happens when you win a lot. People find reasons to hate you. Yankees fans understand, Patriots fans understand, Red Wings fans understand. It's what happens.

When I was 10 years old and filling out my NCAA tournament bracket you know who I took to the finals every year? Duke. Do you know how many tourney pools I lost? All of them. I just assumed since this was my favorite team and I like the way they play, and I love their coach and players that they must be contenders every year. Makes sense, right? I learned my lesson quickly.

The past 10 years I have become much more realistic in my expectations of the Blue Devils. I haven't taken them past the Sweet 16 the past couple of tourneys despite their rankings. They just weren't talented enough, didn't have the depth or the star power.

This year was different for me. They had an easy schedule to get to the Final Four, but I still didn't trust them. Is John Scheyer really that good? He looks like puberty is still trying to set in. Nolan Smith? More like Nolan Smurf. Kyle Singler? Sure he's reminiscent of Mike Dunleavey, but he can't lead the team to the finals, right?

Still, this was my team. When the NCAA Bracketologists decides to give you the easiest conference in the tourney you know anything is possible. And as each #1 seed dropped off I really began to believe.

Before I knew it, they were in the Finals against the upstart Butler Bulldogs. Butler was the world's underdogs. The rags to riches story of college basketball. They got by on great defense, passion and teamwork. Their coach is 32 years old and was working at Applebee's in 2000. Yet, on Monday night they had to face off against the juggernaut of college basketball. The Communist Regime, the Russians, the Empire, the Duke Blue Devils.

For the first time in my sports fandom I was rooting for the over budgeted, over hyped Goliath and against the lowly underdogs trying to chase history. I couldn't have been happier.

Butler is a great story. I'm so glad they made it to the finals and they have had a tremendous impact on college basketball. But this Duke team impressed me so much.

As a kid I rooted for the Duke teams that were loaded with first round draft picks to be. They enjoyed nearly undefeated seasons and trounced anyone in their path. This was the first Duke team that wasn't bloated with talent and star power. They were hard working, dedicated, grunt work players who did everything to get it done. Senior leadership led the way.

Sure. I get it. You still think I'm a bandwagoner. You still think I'm a phony and that Duke is worse than a Yankees/Voldemort sandwich. That's fine, I get it.

But Monday night was torture for me. Duke was supposed to blow Butler out, win by 20 and call it a day. Butler just kept hanging around. They made Duke work for every basket, and gave them no open looks. They fought hard on offense and got points from their bench. They just wouldn't go away!

At 10:09pm, when the game broke for halftime, I planned to go to bed (No, not cause I'm on a bandwagon but because I wake up at 5am). I laid down for 20 minutes trying to sleep. I couldn't do it. It was only a 1 point game! Butler could still pull it off! I couldn't sleep. I sat back up in bed and figured I'd watch a little more until Duke pulls away and when the game is firmly in hand I'll go to bed. That moment never came. When Gordon Haywood missed his baseline fall-away jumper to give Butler the lead I almost pooped the bed. Then with a two point lead Zoubek intentionally misses his last free throw and Haywood again heaves one from half court that hits the square on the backboard, bounces straight down in the front of rim then ricochets out, I couldn't believe it. Duke actually did it. This wasn't an Elite Eight game...this was the title match-up. It took a minute to set in.

Nothing, not even Jack Bauer on the Lost island hanging with Jim and Dwight, could keep me up all night like this game did. I was nervously awaiting each shot, each moment, each opportunity. I knew Butler wasn't going to give up, Duke had to earn it. They did. Call me bandwagon, whatever.

Duke has returned to college basketball royalty and taken the throne for another year. I couldn't be happier.

Unless the Redskins traded for a hated rival quarterback and said, "This is your future for the next 3-5 years. Suck it."