Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Overreaction Tuesday!

I'm taking a cue from the national media and celebrating today by overreacting to the Week 1 games. This happens each year, we're so excited for the season we forgo all logic and become shortsighted as soon as the first match-up is over thinking we can draw season long conclusions from one week. Let's not forget Bryan Gunst started 1-0 last year before losing 12 of the next 13 and becoming the Neo. Likewise, I've never won a Week 1 game in the Ducal Crown, going back 3 years to before we called it the "Ducal Crown". And I've had some success in the league #humblebrag.

So, let's make like Austin, Gunst and Noord at a July baseball game and freak out over some insignificant crap that won't have a major impact on anything. Hooray football!

Moose Tracks (TJB) vs. Wreck-It Ralph (Neil)
Final: TJB 125.24 - 118.72 Neil

Overreaction #1: Neil's team is just as bad as we thought! His lack of a legit RB1 will be his undoing, schedule him as a bottom-four team already.

Truth: As much as it pains me to say it, Ralphie's team isn't in as bad of shape as we think it is. Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall are serious talents and will compete as top 5 Fantasy wide receivers this season. Hm, where have I heard this before? Oh yes, it was what Neil and I were preaching at the draft when he took them back to back in the 2nd round and you all laughed at him. You realize Julio did all that (6 for 108 and 2 TDs) in 2.5 quarters? Peyton looks to be in good shape, able to make the smart throws and with a limited running game he's good for a TD or two each week. Doug Martin has established himself as a strong play at RB2 and if Ryan Matthews can come back and do what he did last year, I think Neil's team (carried by those WRs) is in good shape to surprise us.

I realized I just spent an entire paragraph praising Neil's team. I'm going to sand blast my face to get this moment off of me. Let's move on.

Overreaction #2: TJB has no holes on his team, he'll coast through the season as a top 2 team.

Truth: His team is stacked right now. Brady, McCoy, Graham are all first round talents, and Andre Johnson was dominate this week. Pierre Garcon might be the sleeper on this team filling in his flex spot with almost 20 points. But if you look deeper, and that's what I do...I look deep, you realize his bench is as desolate as Ricky's social life. His bench (before adding Stephen Hill of the Jets during Week 1 games) scored 29.6 points. 21 of those points came from Redskins future Hall of Famer Alfred Morris. Meaning four other guys combined for 8 points.

It may seem like nit-picking, but Fantasy is all about depth and surviving the season. Bye weeks can kill records and players get hurt and miss time. If Andre and Garcon can stay healthy all year, I think this is a top four team. Unfortunately, Garcon is already hurt and Andre isn't exactly stalwart.

RG SPE (Noord) vs. deSPEcable me (AJM)
Final: Noord 118.12 - 95.50 AJM

Overreaction #1: Noord got lucky, his team is still lacking in key areas and relied too much on a miraculous 40 point performance from his Kicker and Defense and will (hopefully) lose the next 13 games to make up for the travesty that is beating me in Week 1.

Truth: See above.

This has been a presentation of "AJ's Bitter-Blogger Face".

In reality, Noord may have hit a gold mine in Mike Bush, he may be the Mike Alstott of our generation. A solid player on a good team who gets touchdowns like rappers get money (I dunno, this is something kids say. I don't really listen to rap).

Overreaction #2: The gaping hole at RB2 will become a gaping hole at RB1 when DeMarco Murray gets hurt. Plus, AJ's WR carousel is a recipe for disaster.

Truth: The good news is Matt Stafford just had his worst game of the season (please, God). The other good news is I left 70 points on my bench. Let's not forget mine was one of the few teams that got BETTER after Week 1. CJ Spiller just earned himself a starting job after a 25 point performance and Fred Jackson's injury. He fills in my RB2 hole and goes along with DeMarco Murray swimmingly. The bad news is I still have to choose between Dez, Greg Jennings, Demaryius Thomas, Steve Smith and Antonio Brown. Last week, I guessed wrong. To be honest, I'm really banking on not having to face such elite special teams EVERY FREAKING WEEK.

B-Button Spin Move (Jimmy) vs. Pledge Prez Perry (Austin)
Final: Jim 124.06 - 92.72 Austin

Overreaction #1: Jimmy's high scoring week firmly plants him in the top 5 of our league.

Truth: Unlike Stafford, Matt Ryan just had the best week of his Fantasy season. I think you can expect decent numbers from his wide receivers (Stevie Johnson, Marques Colston and Nate Washington), but those guys aren't an every week threat to post 20 points, 10-15 is more realistic. Plus Nate Washington and Jake Locker got hurt on the same play. That's some bad Fantasy karma! I think he starts two good players at RB (Charles and Sproles), especially in this PPR league, but I won't be ranking him in my top 5 just yet. Those RBs are good, but not great. In Fantasy you have to have at least 2-3 great players on your team. Gronk is one great player, who is his second?

Overreaction #2: Jay Cutler and Robert Griffin can't carry Austin's team, Perry needs a real QB to return to championship form.

Truth: Cutler and Griff outscored Stafford, Newton, Eli Manning, and a bunch more I don't have the time or resources to look up. Maybe the Skins don't score 40 every week (loljk, of course they will), but I do think we see a return to Fantasy relevance from Jay Cutler. With Perry's WR core on deck and MJD returning to the starting lineup, count me terrified of our Week 2 match-up.

God.Bless.Day.Beers (Creas) vs. Need for SPEed (Sam)
Final: Creas 116.76 - 115.32 Sam

Overreaction #1: Creasy squeaked one out here! He's lucky to get this win and we should worry about his wide receivers sustaining their strong Week 1 performance.

Truth: Well, technically, he did squeak this win out. Ray Rice getting benched with 10 minutes left and Sam down by the 1.44 points he ended up losing by is the definition of "squeaking it out". That's a 10 yard catch away from being a big loser. But let's slow our roll, I think we were all a little surprised by Marshawn Lynch coming out and putting up a solid performance despite back spasms (85 yards with a few catches) and less surprised by Matt Forte being yardage eating machine again. The key to this team really is his wide receivers. Andrew Luck is relying on Reggie Wayne as a safety net and Miles Austin caught and ran for a (kinda) fluky touchdown. If Miles Austin's hamstring stays healthy and Austin Collie stays concussed, those two could return to their former status as WR1 and WR2 in this league.

Overreaction #2: Sam's team is the ultimate paper dragon, they look daunting in projections, but on the field they'll continue to under-perform.

Truth: I think what we saw from Sam's team was a let down to everyone but Creas. Josh McDaniel's says the game plan took looks away from Wes Welker (and his 2.9 fantasy points) intentionally. I think maybe his age, ongoing contract 'situation' and Gronkandez combination might just be the Patriots moving on from Welker in general.  But that's reading too far into it and overreacting, which I promised not to do. The question is whether Brady can quit him, or if their brokeback relationship will continue to net 90+ catches this year (it probably will). Roddy clearly regressed to the WR2 on the Falcons, but for a team that is throwing a ton, that may not be a bad thing. As it was in preseason, the real test for this team will be whether or not Sam's keepers (Cam and Cruz) will return to their 2011 form, or if they were a flash in the fantasy pan. 

WheelsGoNonStop (Gunst) vs. Scobee Snacks (Ricky)
Final: Gunst 133.02 - 95.08 Ricky

Overreaction #1: Bryan Gunst is leading an unstoppable force that will bring the Fantasy reckoning to all neophytes in this league. Prepare for total domination.

Truth: I don't claim anyone to be the Champ this early in the season (unless I'm talking about myself). Put it this way, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson and Kevin Smith will not play 16 games each this year. That's not exactly a bold prediction, but it is true. There are just too many health questions surrounding them already. But, if they do...congrats, Champ.

Overreaction #2: Throw in the towel! Ricky's season is done! The risk has backfired! RANK HIM BEHIND NOORD!

Truth: Losing Fred Jackson early in the first quarter and watching Mike Vick remind us that's he's not a quarterback, he's just super athletic, does not bode well for Ricky's season. But we shouldn't bail just yet. Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden are totally capable of carrying this team, if they produce like their talent dictates and stay healthy. And its not like Ricky is going from Vick to Carson Palmer, he'll start Phillip Rivers next week and try to rebound from this catastrophe.

Oh, who am I kidding, it's more fun to be fire-and-brimstone with Ricky's team. Rank him last and call it a year, this dude is cooked. He picked a bad season to proclaim he's not trading his studs, cause I'd jump all over trading McFadden for an RB2 and a WR2 with WR1 potential (Demaryius Thomas, Jeremy Maclin, Antonio Brown, Marques Colston, Percy Harvin etc). Unfortunately, he's said again and again he's not trading his studs this year. The league laughs as he buries himself in an injury prone hole with no hope of getting out unless he recants his former statement. But, all the best to ya pal!



I'm just saying...keep your cool.

No comments:

Post a Comment